Medical and Health Services Managers Have the Best Pandemic Recovery Outlook — Here’s How Nearly 760 Jobs Stack Up

Much has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic began. With economywide disruptions such as soaring inflation rates and worker shortages across industries like hospitality and health care, some roles may have better pandemic recovery prospects than others.

To better understand which roles have the best outlook for 2030, LendingTree researchers analyzed U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on nearly 760 jobs. In addition to looking at which jobs have the best prospects, we’ll also look at which industries are expected to grow the most and what consumers should consider when switching careers.

Key findings

• Medical and health services managers have the best pandemic recovery prospects. The number of medical and health services managers is expected to grow by nearly 33% over the next eight-plus years — one of the fastest growth rates among the roles analyzed. Additionally, median wages for this role top six figures.
• Across 758 jobs analyzed, shoe machine operators and tenders rank lowest. The number of people joining, decorating, reinforcing or finishing shoes or shoe parts is expected to shrink by almost 22% by 2030. These workers earn $28,560 annually — among the lowest across the jobs analyzed.
• Two of the fastest-growing jobs are in renewable energy. The number of people employed as wind turbine service technicians is projected to grow by about 68% by 2030, while the percentage of people working as solar photovoltaic installers is projected to grow by about 52%.
• By industry, health care support has the highest projected growth rate — but workers aren’t well-paid. Over the next-plus eight years, the number of jobs in this industry — which include roles like physical therapist assistants and home health care aides — is projected to grow by about 23%. However, median annual wages for these employees are below $30,000.
• Just three major industries are expected to shrink by 2030. Among these, office and administrative support jobs — such as secretaries and customer service representatives — are expected to lose the highest rate of jobs in the next eight-plus years (2.8%). That’s followed by sales and related occupations (1.4%) and production occupations, which include roles like butchers and machinists (0.4%).

Which jobs have the best pandemic recovery prospects?

LendingTree researchers analyzed 758 jobs across four metrics:

• The projected percentage of employees in each occupation in 2030
• The percentage growth in the number of workers between 2020 and 2030
• The annual average of job openings between 2020 and 2030
• The median annual wages in 2021

Medical and health services managers — think nursing home administrators, clinical managers and health information managers — have the best pandemic recovery outlook. Notably, the number of medical and health services jobs is expected to grow 32.5% over the next eight-plus years — ranking it among the fastest-growing roles. Median wages top six figures at $101,340, compared with a national median of $45,760 across all occupations.

Rank	Job	Employment distribution, 2030	Percentage growth in workers, 2020-2030	Annual average of job openings, 2020-2030	Median annual wages, 2021
1	Medical and health services managers	0.344%	32.5%	51,800	$101,340
2	Financial managers	0.484%	17.3%	64,200	$131,710
3	Nurse practitioners	0.203%	52.2%	26,000	$120,680
4	Management analysts	0.624%	13.7%	99,400	$93,000
5	General and operations managers	1.595%	9.4%	229,600	$97,970
6	Health specialties teachers, postsecondary	0.182%	24.3%	30,800	$102,720
7	Computer and information systems managers	0.323%	10.9%	42,400	$159,010
8	Market research analysts and marketing specialists	0.547%	22.1%	96,000	$63,920
9	Lawyers	0.529%	8.9%	46,000	$127,990
10	Construction managers	0.302%	11.5%	38,900	$98,890

Source: LendingTree analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data

Given the pandemic’s impact on the health care sector, it isn’t surprising that medical and health services managers have the best outlook for the next eight-plus years.

The factors associated with its ranking are widely felt across the industry. Demand for health care workers has accelerated in recent years. Although that’s primarily due to the U.S.’s ever-growing and aging population, the pandemic accelerated demand. Employment across all health care occupations is projected to grow 16.0% from 2020 to 2030 — much faster than the 7.7% average across all occupations.

Beyond medical and health services managers, two other top-10 jobs are health care-related, and growth significantly contributes to both. Of these:

• Nurse practitioner jobs (third overall) have a growth rate of 52.2%.
• Postsecondary health specialty teacher jobs (sixth overall) have a growth rate of 24.3%.

Similarly, the other top-ranking health care jobs pay well above the national median:

• Nurse practitioners: $120,680 annually
• Postsecondary health specialty teachers: $102,720

Meanwhile, six of the top 10 jobs are management occupations. Economic growth plays a role in these rankings. As new organizations form and existing organizations expand, the demand for managers (typically well-paid due to their positions in leadership) and related roles will grow. Aside from medical and health services managers, the top-ranking management occupations include:

• Financial managers (second)
• Management analysts (fourth)
• General operations managers (fifth)
• Computer and information systems managers (seventh)
• Construction managers (10th)

Lowest-ranking jobs face outsourcing and automation, and they pay poorly

On the other end of the spectrum, shoe machine operators and tenders ranked lowest. The number of those employed in this role working with shoes and shoe parts is expected to shrink by 21.6% over the next eight-plus years — in the bottom 10 across all 758 jobs. Those in this role are also among the lowest paid, making just $28,560 annually — in the bottom 20.

Outsourcing likely plays a role here, as 99% of shoes sold in the U.S. today are imported, according to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America. This isn’t just an issue within shoe manufacturing. Much of the U.S. manufacturing industry has been outsourced over the past two-plus decades, with companies favoring cheaper international labor costs for these typically labor-intensive jobs.

Notably, almost all of the lowest-ranking jobs are within the manufacturing industry. Jobs associated with textile manufacturing rank as two of the five jobs with the worst outlooks. That includes hand cutters and trimmers, which involve cutting common textiles like carpet and fabric, and textile bleaching and dyeing roles.

Rank	Job	Employment distribution, 2030	Percentage growth in workers, 2020-2030	Annual average of job openings, 2020-2030	Median annual wages, 2021
1	Shoe machine operators and tenders	0.002%	-21.6%	400	$28,560
2	Manufactured building and mobile home installers	0.002%	-18.4%	300	$36,360
3	Cutters and trimmers, hand	0.003%	-29.7%	600	$30,230
4	Timing device assemblers and adjusters	0.000%	-17.8%	100	$37,780
5	Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders	0.004%	-13.8%	700	$29,930
6	Telephone operators	0.002%	-25.4%	400	$37,630
7	Sewers, hand	0.004%	-9.5%	800	$29,930
8	Shoe and leather workers and repairers	0.005%	-14.0%	800	$31,450
9	Watch and clock repairers	0.001%	-24.9%	200	$44,250
10	Textile cutting machine setters, operators and tenders	0.007%	-11.1%	1,300	$29,960

Source: LendingTree analysis of BLS data

Technological advancements have also impacted the lowest-ranking jobs, particularly among roles in the manufacturing industry. Advanced equipment continually replaces many manufacturing jobs, with many processes now computer-controlled and automated.

According to LendingTree chief credit analyst Matt Schulz, outsourcing in the manufacturing industry is common.

“Businesses are always focused on efficiency and streamlining processes and costs, so if they can find ways to automate and outsource certain roles, they’re likely to at least consider it,” Schulz says. “That certainly seems like that would be an issue with jobs such as machine operators, where technological advances continue to threaten to make obsolete jobs that real people have done in the past.”

Full rankings of all 758 jobs

Renewable energy jobs among the fastest-growing roles

Good news for the climate: Two renewable energy roles rank among the fastest-growing jobs. Specifically, the number of wind turbine service technicians who install, maintain and repair them is projected to grow by 68.2%. Meanwhile, the percentage of people working as solar photovoltaic installers is projected to grow by 52.2%. These workers install, assemble, set up and maintain systems that convert sunlight to energy.

That’s not the only way climate change may impact job growth. Research increasingly indicates that exposure to environmental factors associated with climate change — such as air pollutants and extreme heat events — increases the likelihood of having a child with genetic conditions or birth defects.

With almost all of the global population exposed to air pollutants and the frequency of extreme heat events rising, genetic counselors, who assess an individual’s risk of having a child with genetic conditions or birth defects, are expected to grow by more than a quarter (26.2%). That ranks it as the 16th fastest-growing job tracked here.

Meanwhile, as the frequency of forest fires increases annually, forest fire inspectors and prevention specialist roles are expected to grow by 23.9%. As exposure to air pollutants also leads to more respiratory conditions, respiratory therapist roles are expected to grow by 23.0%.

Rank	Job	Number employed, 2020	Number employed, 2030	Employment change, 2020-2030	% employment change, 2020-2030	Median annual wages, 2021
1	Wind turbine service technicians	6,900	11,700	4,700	68.2%	$56,260
2	Nurse practitioners	220,300	335,200	114,900	52.2%	$120,680
3	Solar photovoltaic installers	11,800	17,900	6,100	52.1%	$47,670
4	Statisticians	42,000	56,900	14,900	35.4%	$95,570
5	Physical therapist assistants	93,800	126,900	33,200	35.4%	$61,180
6	Information security analysts	141,200	188,300	47,100	33.3%	$102,600
7	Home health and personal care aides	3,470,700	4,600,600	1,129,900	32.6%	$29,430
8	Medical and health services managers	429,800	569,400	139,600	32.5%	$101,340
9	Data scientists and mathematical science occupations	63,200	83,000	19,800	31.4%	$100,480
10	Physician assistants	129,400	169,500	40,100	31.0%	$121,530
11	Epidemiologists	7,800	10,200	2,300	29.6%	$78,830
12	Logisticians	191,000	247,300	56,400	29.5%	$77,030
13	Speech-language pathologists	158,100	203,500	45,400	28.7%	$79,060
14	Animal trainers	60,200	77,400	17,200	28.5%	$31,280
15	Computer numerically controlled tool programmers	27,100	34,500	7,400	27.4%	—
16	Genetic counselors	2,400	3,100	600	26.2%	$80,150
17	Crematory operators and personal care and service workers, all other	80,500	100,500	19,900	24.8%	$29,610
18	Operations research analysts	104,100	129,700	25,600	24.6%	$82,360
19	Actuaries	27,700	34,500	6,800	24.5%	$105,900
20	Health specialties teachers, postsecondary	242,700	301,600	58,900	24.3%	$102,720
21	Forest fire inspectors and prevention specialists	3,000	3,700	700	23.9%	$42,600
22	Interpreters and translators	81,400	100,700	19,300	23.7%	$49,110
23	Athletic trainers	30,000	37,000	7,000	23.4%	$48,420
24	Respiratory therapists	135,100	166,200	31,100	23.0%	$61,830
25	Substance abuse, behavioral disorder and mental health counselors	327,500	402,600	75,100	22.9%	$48,520
26	Food preparation and serving-related workers	71,200	87,400	16,200	22.8%	$29,120
27	Postsecondary nursing instructors and teachers	72,600	88,900	16,300	22.4%	$77,440
28	Woodworker	9,500	11,600	2,100	22.2%	$35,610
29	Phlebotomists	129,600	158,400	28,800	22.2%	$37,380
30	Software developers and software quality assurance analysts and testers	1,847,900	2,257,400	409,500	22.2%	—

Source: LendingTree analysis of BLS data. Note: The number of people employed in 2020 and 2030 and the change were rounded for display, so the difference between 2020 and 2030 may appear slightly different than the figure displayed in the change column.

Health care support has the highest growth rate of any industry

Despite the high growth rate, health care support workers make median annual wages of $29,880 — lower than the median annual wage in the U.S. ($45,760) and much lower than the median annual wage for health care practitioners and technician jobs ($70,050). This is largely due to lower educational levels. While many health care worker roles require doctoral or professional degrees, the majority of health care support workers don’t require similarly lengthy postsecondary education.

Following health care support, personal care and service occupations are expected to grow by 21.7%, making it the only industry with growth rates above 20%. Similarly, roles within this industry typically only require a high school diploma or associate degree. Annual median salaries were also lower than average, at $29,450.

College enrollment trends may be a contributing factor in the growth rate here. Total postsecondary enrollment, including undergraduate and graduate students, has declined for two years. According to the most recent report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), enrollment decreased by 4.1% in spring 2022 compared to spring 2021.

Job	Number employed, 2020	Number employed, 2030	Employment change, 2020-2030	% employment change, 2020-2030	Median annual wages, 2021
Health care support	6,837,800	8,418,000	1,580,100	23.1%	$29,880
Personal care and service	3,870,400	4,711,400	841,000	21.7%	$29,450
Food preparation and serving-related	11,553,300	13,820,800	2,267,600	19.6%	$28,400
Computer and mathematical	5,225,000	5,959,900	734,900	14.1%	$97,540
Arts, design, entertainment, sports and media	2,662,200	3,011,400	349,200	13.1%	$51,190
Community and social service	2,804,400	3,151,300	346,900	12.4%	$48,410
Health care practitioners and technical	9,011,400	9,985,900	974,600	10.8%	$75,040
Educational instruction and library	9,134,700	10,055,200	920,500	10.1%	$57,220
Management	9,782,300	10,689,100	906,800	9.3%	$102,450
Legal	1,328,700	1,445,200	116,600	8.8%	$82,430
Transportation and material moving	12,673,200	13,793,300	1,120,100	8.8%	$36,860
Protective service	3,417,200	3,703,700	286,400	8.4%	$46,590
Business and financial operations	9,422,500	10,173,300	750,800	8.0%	$76,570
Life, physical and social science	1,444,000	1,557,800	113,800	7.9%	$72,740
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance	5,168,800	5,555,600	386,800	7.5%	$30,240
Installation, maintenance and repair	5,847,300	6,239,800	392,500	6.7%	$47,940
Construction and extraction	6,971,100	7,371,200	400,000	5.7%	$48,210
Architecture and engineering	2,603,000	2,748,900	146,000	5.6%	$79,840
Farming, fishing and forestry	1,061,800	1,088,400	26,600	2.5%	$29,860
Production	8,766,500	8,727,400	-39,000	-0.4%	$37,710
Sales and related	14,393,600	14,190,700	-2,02,900	-1.4%	$30,600
Office and administrative support	19,554,700	19,015,600	-5,39,200	-2.8%	$38,050

Source: LendingTree analysis of BLS data. Note: The number of people employed in 2020 and 2030 and the change were rounded for display, so the difference between 2020 and 2030 may appear slightly different than the figure displayed in the change column.

3 industries expected to shrink

While most industries are projected to grow, three are expected to shrink. Among these, the office and administrative support industry is expected to shrink the most, declining 2.8% over the next eight-plus years. Part of the reason for the decline is technology-related. Many functions provided by office and administrative staff members can be accomplished (and, at times, fully automated) by technology, allowing staff in other roles to take on other administrative responsibilities in addition to their own tasks.

Following that, sales and related occupations are projected to decline by 1.4%, and production occupations are expected to decline by 0.4%. Technology also can be attributed to the decline in both industries. The rise of e-commerce has eliminated the need for many sales jobs in brick-and mortar stores, and the development of advanced manufacturing equipment has similarly eliminated many production jobs.

Schulz warns that individuals employed in these industries should be concerned about their ability to advance in their careers.

Determining if you should switch careers — and how to do it without breaking the bank

While Schulz recommends those employed in roles with poor prospects should be cautious, it’s not necessarily an end-all and be-all if you’re happy with your job.

It’s also important to understand the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

For those still considering a job or career change, Schulz offers the following advice:

• Check what benefits your current employer offers. “One of the best things people can do is to see if their current employer offers reimbursement for education expenses,” Schulz says. “Even if they only cover a fraction of the cost, every little bit can make a difference.”
• Consider what roles suit your needs and interests. Schulz recommends asking yourself key questions to determine your compatibility with a new potential career. Does the job fit your skill set? Are the salary and benefits competitive? Is there room to grow? Does this company reflect your values? Do they support a healthy work-life balance? Do you think you’d be challenged in — and maybe even enjoy — the job?

With so many personality and lifestyle factors to consider, what matters most?

“That’s up to you,” Schulz says. “Sorting out your workplace values takes time, but it’s important to do so before making a major move like changing jobs or industries.”

Methodology

To determine which jobs have the best outlook between 2020 and 2030, LendingTree researchers analyzed U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections. Specifically, researchers looked at four metrics:

• Percentage growth: the projected percent change in the number of people working in each occupation from 2020 to 2030.
• Median wages: the median annual wage in 2021 (the latest available).
• Average annual openings: the projected number of annual openings for each occupation between 2020 and 2030.
• Employment distribution: the projected percentage of people employed in each occupation in 2030.

Each metric was weighted equally. Jobs that didn’t have sufficient data across each metric were excluded from our analysis.